The USDA office in Beijing projects a year-on-year decline in beef consumption in China in 2026, amid continued weak demand and tighter trade conditions.
According to the report, consumption is expected to fall from 11.644 million tons in 2025 to 11.080 million tons in 2026, a significant drop that marks a break from the expansion seen in previous years. It would be the lowest beef consumption since 2022 and 564 thousand tons below the 2025 record.
The main driver behind this contraction is subdued consumer spending. Beef remains a price-sensitive protein within China’s consumption structure and is more vulnerable to economic pressure than lower-priced alternatives such as pork and poultry. In the foodservice channel —particularly mid- to high-end restaurants— margin compression during 2025 led operators to switch from higher-priced U.S. and Australian beef to more affordable South American products or to remove beef dishes from menus altogether. The USDA office does not expect this trend to reverse in 2026. A similar pattern is seen in household consumption: strong price sensitivity limits overall volume growth, as lower-priced cuts tend to substitute for premium products without generating net expansion in total demand.
Starting in January 2026, safeguard measures introducing a country-specific tariff-rate quota (TRQ) framework and a 55% additional duty on out-of-quota shipments are also expected to raise landed costs and dampen purchasing incentives. In this context, the USDA office in Beijing forecasts beef imports will decline from 3.658 million tons in 2025 to 3.500 million tons in 2026. This figure is 250 thousand tons lower than the prior projection of the USDA for this year.
Domestic production is also projected to fall, to 7.600 million tons, due to reduced availability of slaughter-ready cattle following several years of herd liquidation. However, this tighter supply will not be sufficient to offset weak demand, reinforcing a scenario of overall adjustment in China’s beef market in 2026.
